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| History will be made on Sunday for one of these quarterbacks. |
The New York Giants enter this game battling back from the throes of obscurity by winning five straight, dating back to their week 16 victory over the New Yor Jets. They will face the New England Patriots who themselves are riding a wave of momentum, having won 10 straight games to run away with the AFC East. The Giants have the opportunity to once again silence the Patriots, denying Bill Belichick and Tom Brady that elusive fourth Super Bowl ring. Still, as much as we want to draw the parallels between 2007 and 2011, these two teams are not the same teams that met in Super Bowl XLII. The line may have the Giants as the underdog, but talk to most people and they will tell you that the Giants are the superior team. Listening to expert opinions, most favor the Giants at about 70/30 split. This worries me a bit. I think the Giants are relishing the role as the favorite and are a bit overconfident. You cannot overlook this Patriots team, especially Tom Brady. So is it the Patriots that are being disrespected? Not exactly. The Patriots did go 13-3 this year though they have not beaten a team with a winning record. Even so, let's not paint them as the redheaded stepchild. This is a Bill Belichick coached team featuring Tom Brady under center.
The other thing that tweeks me a bit is this whole double revenge factor the media has been playing up. All we're hearing about is how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are so desperate to avenge their 2007 Super Bowl loss and their week 9 loss, they're literally foaming at the mouth.
Look, there is no denying the fact that Brady and Belichick want to win this game, however, wanting something more than anything doesn't mean you're guaranteed to get it. There are so many things in this world that I want, but it doesn't mean I'm going to get them just because I want them badly. The game still has to be played before we can crown a champion. This will be the fifth Super Bowl appearance by Brady and Belichick, the most by any coach/quarterback combo in the history of the NFL. Furthermore, if Brady and Belichick win on Sunday, they will join rarefied air as the second pair of coach/quarterback to win four Super Bowls together. The only other tandem to do so are Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw with the Pittsburgh Steelers. If Brady does in fact win his fourth ring, he will join Joe Montana as the only other quarterback to win four Super Bowls. Ok, I get it, the Patriots have a lot to play for. Enough withthe Brady lovefest though, it's starting to make me nauseous. The team standing on the other sideline can accomplish a bit of history themselves if they win this Super Bowl.
The Giants are appearing in their fifth Super Bowl in the last twenty five years, having won three to date. In the Giants three Super Bowl wins, they have played the team they faced in the regular season. In the Giants lone Super Bowl loss to the Ravens in 2000, they did not play the Ravens in the regular season. The Giants won their week 9 matchup against the Patriots 24-20.
This will be the second Super Bowl for Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning in the last four years. If the Giants win, Eli will become the only quarterback in Giants history to start two Super Bowls and win. Coughlin will become the second coach in Giants history to win two Super Bowls with the New York Giants, joining Bill Parcells as the only other coach to accomplish this feat. The win would no doubt cement the credentials of Coughlin and Manning into the Giants ring of honor, but it also increases the liklihood of Tom Coughlin's chances to be enshrined in Canton. Pretty hard to fathom considering that six weeks ago, everybody was ready to crucify Coughlin and run him out of town. Eli Manning's two rings will give him one more ring than big brother Peyton, who lost to the New Orleans Saints in his second Super Bowl appearance. Coincidentally the win will come in Lucas Oil Field, the house that Eli's brother Peyton Manning built. Lastly, the win would also mark the first time in the history of the Super Bowl that a team with a record of 9-7 has won it all.
Moving past the pre-game chatter and on to the game, let's delve into what it is going to take for the Giants to win. On the defensive side of the ball, the Giants must get pressure up front from the talented defensive line. I'm in no way, shape or form calling Tom Brady soft, however, Brady does not handle pressure well. The Giants did a great job getting to Brady in 2007, sacking him 5 times, and was one of the main reason why they won the Super Bowl. The defensive line has also been significantly bolstered during this playoff run. The line features a healthy Umenyiora and Tuck, which they did not have the luxury of having in week 9 against the Patriots. JPP has been talking a big game, which I'd prefer he didn't, but I do like the confidence he has that he'll be able to get to Brady. If the Giants are unable to get to Brady, and the offensive line gives him a pocket, it will effectively seal the Giants fate. Brady has the accuracy of a Navy Seal Sniper, capable of picking apart defenses and tormenting the Giants shaky secondary. Brady is not a mobile quarterback like Aaron Rodgers so if the Giants are successful at knocking Brady around, they can disrupt his timing and force him to overthrow his receivers.
Perhaps the biggest story surrounding the Patriots passing game is the health of all-pro tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski is listed as questionable for Sunday's game and will most likely play, despite reports from his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, who was quoted as saying that Gronkowski would not play if this were a regular season game. Gronkowski's own father even stated that his son would most likely require surgery in the offseason to repair the damage to his ankle. Ben Rothlisberger suffered a high-ankle sprain against the Cleveland Browns in week 14 of the regular season. The injury limited Rothlisberger's mobility and affected his play during the Steelers loss to the Broncos in the wild card round of this year's playoffs. While we will never know the full extent of Gronkowski's injury, it is clear that if he plays, he will be playing at less than 100%.
Gronkowski's injury does not mean that the Giants are free and clear in the passing game. They'll still have to stop the other talented tight end, Aaron Hernandez, as well as the dangerous Wes Welker. Hernandez is especially dangerous since he can lineup as a wideout, running back or tight end, creating matchup problems for the Giants defense. Wes Welker is one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL, finishing 2011 with 122 receptions and 1,589 yards and 9 touchdowns. Welker caught 9 passes for 136 yards against the Giants in week 9 in the Patriots 24-20 loss to the Giants. This is by far one of the most talented receiving cores that the Giants have faced this postseason with the exception of Green Bay. The Giants did a fantastic job shutting down Green Bay's receivers by getting to Rodgers and limiting the receivers yards after the catch. We will have to see how the Giants secondary reacts to this challenge. The secondary must slow down the Patriots passing attack and prevent them from gaining huge chunks of yards after the catch, just as they did against Green Bay. The one weakness in the Patriots passing attack is their lack of a true deep threat that can stretch the field and make plays the way Randy Moss did for them in 2007. Chad "Ocho-stinko" is the one guy who has the ability to run deep routes but he's done zilch this year and it's more likely than not that he will be inactive on Sunday.
The Patriots running game is a bit of a mystery to me. BenJarvis Green-Ellis is a very servicable back but in my opinion, he is more of a complimentary player than he is a game-changer. He lacks the breakaway speed of an elite NFL back and is not much of a factor in the passing game, having only caught 9 passes for 153 yards this season. Don't be surprised if you see veteran Kevin Faulk get very involved in the Patriots running game. Belichick trusts him and may insert him as a change of pace running back. The Giants run defense has been porous against the run at times this season. If the Patriots can get their backs to sneak through holes and find seams, they may be able to have a good day running the ball.
On offense, the Giants are explosive. They can put up points in a hurry with their three deep threats in Nicks, Cruz and Manningham. If the Patriots want to contain the Giants receivers, they better find a better cornerback than Julian Edelman to guard these WR's. Manning should have a field day teeing off on the likes of Julian Edelman, Patrick Chung, Sterling Moore, and Kyle Arrington. I will say this though, the Giants better score touchdowns in the red zone. They cannot settle for field goals and expect to beat the Patriots.
I have my concerns about the Giants offensive line. David Baas has been battling nagging injuries this season and has been shaky at best when he does play. The Patriots do not have a ton of pass rushers who can get to the quarterback with the exception of Vince Wilfork. Wilfork must not be allowed to penetrate the line and get to Manning. If the line fails to contain him, he can create havoc for Manning and force turnovers, something the Giants have not done this postseason. Look for the Giants to implement fullbacks Henry Hynoski and Bear Pascoe, as well as tight ends Travis Beckum and Jake Ballard in coverage to pickup the blitz. I also believe Kevin Gilbride will use his fullbacks and tight ends in the passing game, especially in short yardage situations, rather than asking Jacobs to pickup a first down, which leads me to my next point.
The Giants running game has been inconsistent all year. Ahmad Bradshaw has been nursing recurring foot injuries all season, limiting his time on the field. Brandon Jacobs has been a bit of an enigma. He'll go through flashes of being a big bruising back at times and at other times Jacobs cannot get a critical first down on short yardage situations. Ahmad Bradshaw did not play against the Patriots in week 9. Instead, Brandon Jacobs carried the load and had a nice day, rushing for 72 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. The running game is the "X" factor for me in the Super Bowl. Eli Manning is at his best when he uses the run to set up the pass. If the Giants can rush for a combined total of over 100 yards, I believe they will be in good shape. In order for this to happen, the offensive line must block for Bradshaw and open up lanes for him to hit. Jacobs needs to assert himself and punish linebackers who try and tackle him high. If he can soften up the defense, Bradshaw is shifty enough to extend plays and gain decent yardage per carry. I like Ahmad Bradshaw to score a touchdown in this game and rush for about 75 yards.
The last area where the Giants must dominate is in the special teams department. Special teams had been somewhat of a horror show the past few seasons (anyone remember Matt Dodge's kick to DeSean Jackson last year?) Steve Weatherford has been an excellent replacement for Jeff Feagles and has done a marvelous job of pinning opponents deep within their own territory. The coverage team on punts and kickoffs have also done a nice job of forcing turnovers and was instrumental in the win over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. The Giants have won the last two NFC Championship games they've played in on the leg of Lawrence Tynes. Tynes has kicked two game winning field goals in overtime to put the Giants in the Super Bowl. When the game is on the line, I do trust Tynes to have ice water in his veins and make a crucial field goal.
When I look at this game objectively, I do feel that the Giants have the better team and should be able to come out on top, yet I remain cautiously optimistic. Every pundit has been picking the Giants and that worries me. The Giants have come across this past week as supremely confident, if not over cocky. Belief in oneself is never a bad thing, overlooking an opponent is another thing. At the end of the day, if Tom Brady were never to pick up a football for the rest of his life, he would still be considered one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play this game. No one can deny his greatness or his will to win. He is one of the few players in this game who can put a team on his back and win a championship. The Patriots are hear for a reason and that reason is 12, Tom Brady. The once left for dead Giants have peaked at the right time and have ridden that momentum all the way to the Super Bowl. In their journey to Super Bowl XLVI, they have defeated a very good Falcons team, went to Green Bay and defeated a 15-1 Packers team that featured Aaron Rodgers at the helm and outplayed a 13-3 49ers team that sported one of defenses in the NFL. There is no question whether or not the Giants are battle tested. Eli Manning has elevated his game to levels we never thought possible, leaving some to wonder if he has surpassed his brother Peyton as the better Manning quarterback. He has routinely stepped up in the 4th quarter, making big play after big play, all while exhibiting a physical toughness and business like confidence that he expects to win every game, no matter who the opponent is. The defense has gotten healthy and are playing like the dominant defense of the 2007 Super Bowl team. So where do I sit on the fence when it comes to my prediction? Like the Giants players did this season, pushing all their chips to the middle of the table and declaring themselves all in, I too am all in on Big Blue. I like the Giants to win 35-31 in a very tightly contested game. I will go one step further and predict that fellow UMass Alum, Victor Cruz will have 10 catches for 125 yards and 2 TD scores, earning him MVP honors in what will only be a fairy tale ending to an already incredible story.
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